I Think I've Seen This Film Before...

Last summer, when we were in the thick of election season, I told my therapist:

“I have an anxiety disorder, so I’m used to feeling like there’s a shoe about to drop all the time for no apparent reason. But in this political era, it’s hard to figure out where the line is between irrational anxiety about things that may never happen, and completely rational fear and preparation.”

In response, she said: “Yeahhhhhh. I hear that. I can’t tell you which is which, but I can ask you this: how is that fear serving you? Is it benefitting you in some way, or motivating you to do something? If not, maybe you can let it go.” She was, of course, correct - I did what I could, and then I let go.

Needless to say, those fears have returned - and they’re feeling more and more rational by the day.

Here, I hope my own anxiety can offer both insight and resources, without any of us resorting to panic or paranoia. If these are helpful for you, then hang on to them. If you find they’re not helpful, then I gladly invite you to forget they exist.

There are two distinct warning alarms going off in my head right now, and I’m going to give you the same resources I’m looking at so you can figure out what you need:

The Ten Stages of Genocide

Did you know there are entire fields of academic research dedicated to studying genocide? These social scientists look not only at death tolls and aftermath, but the psychological, social, economic, and political factors that lead to genocide. Over the past decades, these same social scientists have learned the answer to the question we all want to know: how, exactly, does a society go from relatively peaceful coexistence to mass murder? Enter Genocide Watch (a nonprofit dedicated to identifying and preventing genocide) and the ‘Ten Stages of Genocide.’ This simple document details the step-by-step process that a society goes through, changing everyday people into killers and victims.

Take a pause and do some reading, then come on back.

I was first introduced to this document fifteen years ago in an International Relations class that focused on cultural, racial and ethnic conflicts, and it’s been burned into my brain ever since. It’s important to note that these stages may overlap, and a nation or group may linger in one stage for years before continuing down its path.

According to Genocide Watch, the United States has lingered in stages 1, 3 and 4: classification, discrimination, and dehumanization for a long time. (Stage 2 is symbolization, which looks different in the US because classification, discrimination, and dehumanization is almost always based on skin color or language identifiers rather than externally-imposed symbols.)

But with each new executive order and press briefing, I see stages five and six beginning to emerge: organization and polarization.

In his first twelve days in office, President Trump pardoned violent January 6th rioters, and signed executive orders specifically targeting the following groups: trans and nonbinary people, trans youth, trans military members and veterans, women and people of color within the federal workforce and the military, refugees already resettled in the US, asylum seekers, and undocumented immigrants and their US citizen children.

These orders also began creating structures that would punish those who support the targeted groups and do not comply with the orders, including revocation of federal funding, freezing grants, and outright firing. President Trump and others also ‘joked’ about deporting those who disagree with him, and made comments implying that groups like the Proud Boys and Oathkeepers, currently independent militias organized by private citizens, could have a place in government.

On Friday, January 31st, dozens of government websites were also removed or changed according to the President’s orders. The changes continued over the weekend. Some highlights:

Notice that all of these red flags for a society devolving toward genocide are concrete government actions with concrete and immediate effects.

I am giving you this framework so that rather than debating whether Elon meant to do a Nazi salute, you can focus on identifying the concrete government actions that will lead the country further down the path. For now, we need to be paying close attention and ensuring our representatives and senators are paying attention. If and when we slip further toward actual, active genocide, we will need to take different kinds of action: physically sheltering our neighbors, helping them flee, and entreating powers outside the US to intervene.

How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them by Barbara F. Walter

This book, published in 2022, was written by Barbara F. Walter, the Rohr Professor of International Relations at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego.

The interesting thing about this book is that it’s not based on anecdotal evidence, or speculation about how civil wars start. Every argument she makes is based on actual data compiled from actual conflicts around the world. She details the combination of societal, economic, and political factors that create conditions ripe for a civil war (and lower-level civil conflicts), including triggers, organization, stages, tactics & prevention.

The data shows that two conditions consistently lead to internal violent conflict: anocracy and factions.

Anocracy is what happens when a country slips down the spectrum from democracy to authoritarian rule, halfway between dictatorship and true democracy. There may still be elections, for example, but an individual leader still winds up with a lot of authoritarian powers. According to the experts, the US slipped into anocracy for the first time since 1800 after the capitol riots and (lack of) immediate government response on January 6th, 2021.

The existence of factions goes beyond political parties vying for power. Factions are rigidly-defined groups with very little crossover - almost no one moves from one group to another, even if their views change. These intransigent, inflexible groups seek to rule in favor of their own members at the expense of everyone else, completely dominating the power structure from top to bottom. Especially when the parties are a similar size, the stakes for winning or losing are high. Factions can also be personalistic in nature, revolving around one dominant figure who appeals to ethnic or religious nationalism to gain and maintain power, even without a coherent policy platform.

You can have both of these things without violent conflict, but as Walter writes in her final chapter, titled Preventing a Civil War:

Notice that she writes “a sense of injustice, inequality, and insecurity.” This is about feelings, not cold hard facts. Especially today, and especially on the internet, it’s important to remember that you cannot logic your way out of a problem that didn’t start with logic.

The key to preventing civil war is proactively addressing grievances - real and perceived - and strengthening democracy rather than abandoning it. In the US, that would mean bolstering confidence in election systems, strengthening the rule of law, increasing transparency and accountability, and finding bipartisan ways to make both sides feel like the government is effective, hearing and serving (at least some of) their interests.

In an ideal situation, this book could offer us a way beyond the insanity of today’s all-or-nothing political climate and into a future where no one is thinking about the ten stages of genocide playing out in our own cities.

The current administration, however, seems to be intent on goading us toward civil war and political violence rather than away from it.

Here’s the thing: as individuals and communities, we are not required to fall into that trap. So many groups - faith traditions, unions, community centers - have strong and lasting legacies of creative direct action, lobbying, and nonviolent resistance.

We can and should take sides. We must continue to love and protect our neighbors. We must use those nonviolent resources to their fullest extent. But as long as we can, we must do our work without starting violent conflicts we are not prepared to end.

Prepared, Not Preppers: emergency preparedness for normal people

Unfortunately, we cannot and should not assume that everyone else will commit themselves to nonviolence as well. I find that having some very basic preparations done gives me the confidence to go through my day without devolving into panic at every new shenanigan - and these preparations work for non-human disasters, too.

Most of us do not need to be prepared to go into hiding in the wilderness at a moment’s notice; nor do we need bunkers with a decade’s worth of supplies. But in the event that a natural disaster, violence, or other emergency forces you to evacuate your home, here are a few sane and simple ways to be prepared.

1. ID: Gather your passport, birth certificate, and social security card (and any other citizenship documents you may have.) Make copies in both black and white and color. Put the originals in an envelope or binder where they can be easily accessed in case of an emergency. Take the color copies and put them in a box or tote with your other emergency supplies. Take the black and white copies, put them in a sealed envelope, and give them to a trusted family member or friend who does not live in the same building. This gives you the best chances of having access to your identifying documents in any scenario.

2. Emergency supplies: there are a bajillion lists out there on the internet. If you can stay in your home during an emergency situation, you will have access to more things. However, in case you need to leave/evacuate quickly, I recommend having a box, tote, or bag ready to go with the following:
-Copies of your important documents (see above)
-2-3 days of canned/dried food per person¹
-Can opener
-Reusable water bottle
-Battery operated lantern
-Batteries
-Mylar thermal blankets²
-First Aid kit
-Toilet paper
-Reusable wash cloths and hand towels
-Hand soap and dish soap
-Multi-tool
-One change of clothes per person
-A paper map of your local area<sup>3

1</sup> Canned and dried food can be just about anything non-perishable, but you want to make sure you can prepare/eat it without adding anything perishable. Look for things like condensed soups, easy mac, pasta and jarred sauce, dried beans and lentils, instant mashed potatoes, etc.
² Mylar blankets are the thin, metal-looking ‘shock blankets’ designed to keep as much body heat in as possible. can be found in the camping section in places like Walmart, Meijer, etc, as well as online retailers like Amazon. These are ideal because they fold up to be very, very small - and even if you grab a blanket or sleeping bag, you can use this as a liner to keep you warmer if you need to sleep in a car or other less-ideal shelter.
³ This is really a worst-case-scenario item, in case cell phone communication is cut off and GPS apps aren’t working.

3. Make A Plan: in the event your home is unsafe and communication is difficult, make sure your family and loved ones have a secondary rendezvous point where you can meet up. This could be anything from a friend’s home in another part of town to a favorite restaurant’s parking lot to your place of worship.

4. Remember: even when the $%!+ hits the fan, you don’t have to do this alone.